Half of tech job postings may not be real, adding strain for product managers

New analysis suggests the share of filled job postings has fallen sharply since 2019, while product managers and other tech workers face a search process that can damage confidence and mental health. Career coach Shobhit Chugh says the bigger problem is not just weak hiring, but what repeated silence makes candidates believe about themselves.

Why it matters: - The gap between posted openings and actual hiring is leaving job seekers to spend time and emotional energy on roles that may never be filled. - Product managers are especially exposed because the search process often pushes experienced candidates to question their own ability, not just market conditions. - The problem can hit harder for workers with time pressure, including candidates whose visa status depends on employment.

What happened: - A Columbia Law Review analysis found the ratio of hires to job postings has halved since 2019, falling from about eight hires per ten postings to four. - In information and technology, the analysis estimated that roughly 48% of postings were effectively not being filled. - Separate LiveCareer survey data from 918 human resources professionals found 93% said their employer posts roles it does not intend to fill soon, and 45% said that is a regular practice. - Shobhit Chugh, a former Google product manager who now coaches product managers through career transitions, said candidates often misread repeated silence as personal failure. - Chugh said one product manager applied to 60 roles over five months and heard nothing back from about two-thirds of them.

The details: - Job seekers report submitting an average of 62.6 applications and spending about 44 minutes on each one, according to survey data published this year. - That adds up to more than a full working week spent on applications alone. - Greenhouse candidate research found 72% of job seekers say the process harms their mental health. - Chugh said even senior product managers can start second-guessing whether they can do the job after a long, silent search. - Chugh argued that the application process feels productive because it is easy to count, but the roles that do get filled are often filled through people. - The tech market is still hiring, but overall demand remains below pre-pandemic levels. - Layoffs have eased from their 2023 peak. - Product manager postings worldwide were up 12% in early 2026, reaching the highest level in three years. - Displaced workers are still competing against each other for a smaller set of real openings.

Between the lines: - The data points to a credibility problem in hiring, not just a volume problem. - When candidates get little or no feedback, the search can become psychologically corrosive long before unemployment ends. - Chugh's advice reflects a broader shift in job hunting: networking and human contact matter more than mass applications. - A six-month search may be manageable for some candidates, but the same timeline can be destabilizing for people with financial or legal deadlines.

What's next: - Chugh said candidates should focus less on high-volume applications and more on relationships that can surface real openings. - Job seekers are likely to keep facing a split market, where posted openings rise but only a portion translate into actual hires. - The pressure on candidates may remain high as long as applications remain easy to submit and hard to verify.